Chart analysis on copper 02.10.2016

After my last analysis I forecast a slight downtrend on Monday morning followed by an uptrend towards the end of the week. That was exactly what happend (see post on my last analysis here). Only problem: I didn't trust in my own findings and did not invest accordingly. Total gain depending on exact opening and closing price would have been between 1-4% with a leverage of 1. Now I wanted to give it another try and investigated the 4h-based and the 1d-based charts with different indicators.

4h based chart

1. bollinger: upper line increasing, market is following -> neutral
2. bollinger average above EMA50 (red line), EMA50 above EMA100 (green line) -> buy
3. RSI at 63.61 -> neutral
4. MACD crossed signalline Friday 11 o'clock, difference still increasing -> buy
5. Stoch: %K above %D, but difference decreases, %K at 80 -> neutral
6. ADX: below 25 on a buy trend -> weak buy

Summary: 3x neutral, 3x buy, 0x sell; Appears like the end of a trend to me. Buy signals are rather weak and due to the spread it could be to late to open a buy trade.

1d based chart

1. Bollinger: Market moves away from increasing upper band (that was crossed on September 22nd) -> neutral
2. bollinger average about to break EMA50, both below EMA100 with decreasing difference -> buy, depending on opening
3. MACD above signalline, both rising, but difference decreasing -> weak buy
4. RSI at 64.42 -> neutral
5. Stoch: above 80 but without clear downtrend (%K just crossed %D again) -> weak buy
6. ADX: below 25 on buy -> weak buy

Summary: 2x neutral, 4x buy, 0x sell. Again the buy signals are weak as if it was the end of a trend. There was a similar candle formation in the mid of July right before copper went down. 

General findings about copper

I had some difficulties finding good sources for news on copper. What I found confirms my thoughts that copper is on a general long term downtrend. Reasons are increasing supply and stock, the Chinese economy and strategical trading. The low price of oil seems to support the low copper price, since it makes production cheaper. 

Overall conclusion

The chart analysis suggests that copper is still in a mid term uptrend. Signals are weak though, which could be a sign for an upcoming decrease. My research on current news confirms this interpretation. Since the situation is not clear to me I will probably not invest right away but wait for better signals.