Portfolio Review 01.01.2017

The year 2016 has come to an end, so it was time for a portfolio review. December has been a rough month for both CopyTrading and ManualTrading with quite some losses. Therefore the following numbers are somewhat disappointing:

CopyTrading: -7,74%
ManualTrading: -9,48%
Overall: -8,58%

The following graph shows the course of my equity:



One negative influence on my performance portfolio (beside bad trading decisions) was that I didn't receive the spread rebate for November, due to an hourly risk score above 6. That is a pretty anoying aspect, as I cannot see the hourly risk score in my stats and I do not get the information which trades pushed my risk score (plus I was very active in November and paid a lot of spread!). Unfortunately the eToro support couldn't tell me (or didn't want to tell me) how the risk score is calculated. The only recommendation they gave me was to increase my balance. That is somehow stupid in my opinion, as I only deposit money I am prepared to loose. Why should I put money into the account and don't work with it? I don't even understand why eToro doesn't want me to invest, as they could profit from the spread and the fees of the trades.

CopyTrading

After a 13 weeks of copying my first set of traders, profit has been very low. So I decided to rearrange my CopyTrading portfolio in calendar week 49 (click here for more details). Although I chose the traders carefully my portfolio went down to -10% at the end of cw52. According to an analysis of @TradeBetter December has been a red month for 70% of all popular investors. Therefore I don't consider the results alarming. I rather trust the selected traders and I am confident that they will come back and make some good profits. Of course I need to keep an eye on the synchronization of my CopyTrades with the traders, as I had some unpleasant experience with getting out of sync (click here for more information). I will write another post about the current status when I finished my analysis. Finally, here is a graph of the performance of my copied traders after I started copying them in cw49:

ManualTrading

Before Christmas I carefully analyzed the charts of $Copper and $Ger30 to chose a strategy to minimize my losses (click here for more details). Since then the markets were relatively calm, so my SL/TP limits were not hit, with one exception: My $Copper sell-trade was closed on December 27th with a good 16% profit. I could have closed with a higher profit if had closed the trade manually instead of waiting for the SL. But one of my "teachers" told me to never mourn about a green trade.

The following chart shows the course of copper. After December 27th I expected the market to bounce off the support level, but instead it pulled back. It didn't test the support again but doesn't really show a trend. I will keep my SL limit for the buy trade below the support and will carefully watch what 2017 will do to the market.

The Ger30 didn't show the pullback I expected for Christmas. Instead it kept in a relatively thin tunnel between $11,400 and $11,500, thus building a resistance level. MACD and Stochastics indicate an upcoming pullback, so I will keep my sell trades open without any change for SL/TP limits. I consider opening another sell trade if the market goes below $11,400. Due to the risk score issue described in the beginning of my post I am indecisive at the moment, so I will wait for the market opening tomorrow.



My trades on $DJ30 and $Gold moved into the right direction, so I will keep them open until I see the markets reverse. Furthermore I had some additional trades on $Copper in the last weeks, following a more or less fixed trading strategy. I will explain this strategy and its performance in a separate blog post.

As always I am happy to get feedback on my post, my strategies or analyses. So feel free to leave me a comment on my blog or on eToro!

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Related posts:
Portfolio chart analysis 22.12.2016
Rearranging my CopyTrading portfolio cw50/16
Getting out of sync @CopyTrading
portfolio review 12.11.2016

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Important remark: The results presented above and throughout my blog are no recommendation for your trading! I only share my personal findings and opinions to give ideas and let my followers and copiers know what I am currently working on. I can not guarantee the correctness of my calculations and my presented results. Furthermore past performance is not an indication for future results. Only trade with money you are prepared to lose!